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Игра без правил



В статье "Why Republicans Play Dirty" авторы книжки "How Democracies Die" пишут, что республиканцы используют грязные методы борьбы на выборах не от хорошей жизни, а от страха неминуемой утраты власти.

Parties representing fearful, declining majorities turn, in desperation, to minority rule.
The only way out of this situation is for the Republican Party to become more diverse. A stunning 90 percent of House Republicans are white men, even though white men are a third of the electorate. Only when Republicans can compete seriously for younger, urban and nonwhite voters will their fear of losing — and of a multiracial America — subside.
Such a transformation is less far-fetched than it may appear right now; indeed, the Republican National Committee recommended it in 2013. But parties only change when their strategies bring costly defeat. So Republicans must fail — badly — at the polls.
American democracy faces a Catch-22: Republicans won’t abandon their white identity bunker strategy until they lose, but at the same time that strategy has made them so averse to losing they are willing to bend the rules to avoid this fate. There is no easy exit. Republican leaders must either stand up to their base and broaden their appeal or they must suffer an electoral thrashing so severe that they are compelled to do so.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/opinion/republicans-democracy-play-dirty.html

Но подобная отчаянная борьба в состоянии страха отражает также вторую этическую систему по Лефевру и метельный менталитет крысы, загнанной в угол.



В облике Трампа отразился нужный архетип, но не менее важна и роль тех, кто систематически работает над воплощением подобных методов. Важную роль в этом выпало сыграть генеральному прокурору Биллу Барру.

Для Барра упрочение власти президента является делом всей жизни. Он начал заниматься этим в администрации Буша-старшего.

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Два посла и два раввина



Украинские похождения Руди Джулиани напоминают истории других персонажей, с которыми его сталкивала судьба. Бизнесмен Гордон Сондланд, обративший на себя внимание и купивший пост посла США в ЕС миллионным пожертвованием на инаугурацию Трампа, напомнил о другом после.



Рональд Лаудер, который ныне поддерживает Трампа на посту президента Всемирного еврейского конгресса, был послом США в Австрии в 1986-1987. Как и Сондланд, Лаудер не обладал дипломатическим опытом или квалификацией, но в качестве наследника состояния своей матери (парфюмерного магната Эсте Лаудер) был богатым донором республиканцев, чем обратил на себя внимание Рейгана.

Его несостоятельность в качестве посла всплыла после скандала с сотрудником посольства, Феликсом Блохом. Блох был разоблачен, как завербованный агент КГБ, но сумел замести следы и избежать наказания благодаря Роберу Ханссену.

Koppel: I've spoken to some of the people who were in charge of the European division of the State Department at the time that Felix Bloch was serving under you. They say, to put it rather bluntly, that you were inexperienced and excitable. I've heard other people, in fact, who said that you were a laughingstock as Ambassador over there.
Lauder: Thank you.
Koppel: Well, I'm not saying it, I'm just passing on to you what some of your former colleagues said. And that in point of fact they regarded Felix Bloch as a highly experienced and competent Foreign Service officer who was very much necessary precisely because there was a political appointee there without much experience.
Lauder: Well, this political appointee, myself, was able to see something that none of these other State Department officials were able to see. I was able to see what this person was like. I knew there was something the matter . . . I know 'cause I was there. I spoke to - I spoke to the various people, I spoke to the people in the State Department. They understood. At this point they're all - perhaps having a case of amnesia. But I know what Felix Bloch was like and I must tell you, I was not surprised.

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/07/27/opinion/just-who-was-our-envoy-to-vienna.html

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Кругом заговор





Трамп ссылается на конспиролога Пола Сперри. Сперри одно время возглавлял вашингтонское бюро WorldNetDaily - помоечного конспирологического сайта, материалы которого помогали распространять тролли с улицы Савушкина.

Citing an online news article titled "The 8 Dirtiest Scandals ofRobert Mueller No One Is Talking About," from on or about August 7, 2017, a member of the Conspiracy directed that the article be messaged in the following way:
Special prosecutor Mueller is a puppet of the establishment. List scandals that took place when Mueller headed the FBI. Direct attention to the listed examples. State the following: It is a fact that the Special Prosecutor who leads the investigation against Trump represents the establishment: a politician with proven connections to the U.S. Democratic Party who says things that should either remove him from his position or disband the entire investigation commission. Summarize with a statement that Mueller is a very dependent and highly politicized figure; therefore, there will be no honest and open results from the investigation. Emphasize that the work of this commission is damaging to the country and is aimed to declare impeachment of Trump. Emphasize that it cannot be allowed, no matter what. (Preliminary translation of Russian text.)

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1102316/download



Последние старания Сперри направлены на то, чтобы доказать, что никакого российского вмешательства в выборы 2016 не было, а российское расследование было заговором ЦРУ, ФБР и тайного теневого правительства Обамы.

"Though the FBI and CIA want the nation to believe Moscow hacked the 2016 election to help Trump win, they may be hiding evidence they themselves meddled in the election to help Clinton win — while ensuring they had checks in place against a renegade Trump presidency — by using FISA warrants to hack into the e-mails of Trump campaign aides and by running a network of spies against them both at home and abroad."
https://nypost.com/2019/07/09/did-a-dirty-intelligence-op-create-the-collusion-probe/

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Пророк популизма



PATRICK CADDELL: I just want to say because this man is a raving narcissist. He has absolutely...
SEAN HANNITY: This is your president, Pat. You're saying he's a raging narcissist?
CADDELL: He's a raging narcissist who has no grip on reality. What he's been doing -- he has been doing which is that I'm king and I can rule like king and the Republicans, I have to say, before lay down for him.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/11/10/pat_caddell_obama_a_raging_narcissist_who_has_no_grip_on_reality.html

Такими словами легендарный политтехнолог Патрик Кадделл, подсказавший Трампу фразу "враги народа" в адрес прессы, описывал президента Барака Обаму.

Кадделл умер в этом году. Его судьба в политике удивительна как на фоне гениальных республиканских политтехнологов вроде Ли Этуотера и Артура Финкельштейна, так и на фоне перебежчиков в правый лагерь вроде Дэвида Горовица.



Молодым студентом Кадделл работал в провальной избирательной кампании демократичекого кандидата в президенты Джорджa Макговернa, проигравшего Никсону в 1972. Его следующая кампания привела к оглушительному успеху - 25-летний Кадделл стал творцом победы Джимми Картера на президентских выборах 1976.

He established his own firm, Cambridge Survey Research, to conduct political campaigns. Although he spun off another company, Cambridge Reports, to advise corporate clients, he was criticized for capitalizing on his Washington connections — representing, among other clients, nuclear energy companies and the Saudi Arabian government — especially when, during the Carter administration, he became known as the president’s pollster.
Campaign staffs are not known for sharing credit, but in June 1976, when Mr. Carter had secured the Democratic nomination, his campaign manager, Hamilton Jordan, confidently told a reporter: “You know why Jimmy Carter is going to be president? Because of Pat Caddell — it’s all because of Pat Caddell.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/obituaries/patrick-caddell-dead.html

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Делая историю



В романе гениального Стивена Фрая "Making history" присутствует элемент альтернативной истории - герою удается проникнуть в прошлое и не допустить рождения Гитлера. Итог - вместо Гитлера на его месте появляется другой персонаж (Руди Гробер), но не фанатичный, а расчетливый и хитрый, который добивается успеха в войне и "окончательного решения" еврейского вопроса.

Gloder's greatest gifts, in the early days of the party, were of organization and of demagoguery. Known for his ready, caustic wit, early rivals dismissed him as a comedian, but he was able to turn the unkindly meant nicknames of Gloder, der ulkige Vogtl, or Rudi der Clown, into weapons of rhetorical attack against his enemies. There is no question however, that it was his charm that won him the most friends and the steady stream of new recruits from all classes of society to the party, that by the early 1920s had swelled to a flood. Naturally endowed with good looks, an athletic bearing and a movie star smile, Gloder's ability to cultivate the admiration and trust of natural political enemies was legendary. The industrial and military classes had faith in him, the ordinary man admired and envied him and women all over Germany (and beyond) openly worshipped him. Organizationally, he grouped the party into sections which were to deal with issues that he considered critical to the achievement of the growth of this fledgling party and the wider growth, when the time came, of greater Germany herself. Propaganda was of huge importance and the recruitment to the party of Josef Gobbels, an academic Rhinelander of strict Catholic upbringing who had been rejected for war service on account of a polio-crippled leg, could not have been more timely. Gobbels' fear of being considered a 'bourgeois intellectual' and his own sense of physical inferiority had led him to formulate a sentimental mythology of blond Nordic purity and manly Spartan virtues: in Gobbels' eyes, Rudolf Gloder was the physical, spiritual and intellectual embodiment of all these Aryan ideals and from their first meeting, Gobbels' considerable gifts of oratory and his natural, modern grasp of the techniques of newsreel and radio, were placed entirely at his Fuhrer's service.



Как, в альтернативной истории, мог бы выглядеть проводник идей трампизма, только компетентный? Определенное представление дают молодые сенаторы - 42-летний Том Коттон из Арканзаса и 39-летний Джош Хоули из Миссури. Самый молодой член Сената, Хаули хорошо образован - окончил (с отличием) Стэнфорд и Йельскую юридическую школу и преподавал в частной школе в Лондоне.

Из его выступления на недавней National Conservative Conference:

"This class lives in the United States, but they identify as “citizens of the world.” They run businesses or oversee universities here, but their primary loyalty is to the global community.
And they subscribe to a set of values held by similar elites in other places: things like the importance of global integration and the danger of national loyalties; the priority of social change over tradition, career over community, and achievement and merit and progress.
Call it the cosmopolitan consensus."
https://www.hawley.senate.gov/senator-josh-hawleys-speech-national-conservatism-conference

Рассуждения про "безродных космополитов" звучат знакомо и в переводе на русский, и в переводе на немецкий.

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Правый поворот



Книжка Predisposed: Liberals, Conservatives, and the Biology of Political Differences (2013) рассказывает о результатах исследований в области биологической политологии - изучении, с какими чертами характера, коррелируют правые и левые политические пристрастия.

Известно, например, что правые (консервативные) взгляды коррелируют с таким качеством, как брезгливость - причем с большой точностью это можно предсказать по реакции мозга на одну картинку.

Disgusting images, especially those related to animal-reminder disgust (e.g., mutilated body), generate neural responses that are highly predictive of political orientation even though these neural predictors do not agree with participants’ conscious rating of the stimuli. Images from other affective categories do not support such predictions. Remarkably, brain responses to a single disgusting stimulus were sufficient to make accurate predictions about an individual subject’s political ideology.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982214012135



Исследования на близнецах показывают, что генетика определяет подобные склонности на 30-40%.

VEDANTAM: There's a really interesting way to separate the effects of biology from the environment. Think about fraternal and identical twins. Identical twins have identical genes. Fraternal twins have similar but not identical genes. If you follow a group of fraternal and identical twins, each twin pair is raised in the same household. Each pair eats the same food, listens to the same conversations, watches the same movies. Now, if you find differences between identical twins as a group and fraternal twins as a group, that suggests that biology, not environment, is the driver. I asked John what such studies reveal about political preferences.
HIBBING: We were fortunate to have access to a data set. It's very large - includes thousands and thousands of twin pairs, collected by a guy named Lindon Eaves long ago. It's a fairly dated data set, but it was a valuable one for us because it included lots of information about their political views. And when we subjected these data to the standard twin design approach, we did indeed find that the political views were quite heritable. Although, people oftentimes misread this, our results suggested that maybe 30 or 40 percent of our political views come from genetics. But, you know, that bothered a lot of people, and this was quite a controversial study in political science. Many people didn't like that at all, and they tended to over-interpret those results and make it sound like we were saying that everything was genetic. But, you know, if it's 30 to 40 percent genetic, that obviously leaves, you know, 50, 60, 70 percent that comes from the environment. So all we're saying is that that genetic component is not zero, but apparently that was enough that some people were upset about that.

https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=654127241

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Надежда



В 1983-1985 американская студента Лиза Пол, изучающая Россию, получила возможность увидеть страну вблизи, устроившись няней в американскую семью в Москве. Для того, чтобы подучить русский язык, она нашла репетитора. Ее учительницей русского стала Инна Китросская-Мейман, автор университетских учебников английского и жена диссидента-отказника Наума Неймана. На молодую студентку знакомство с миром советских диссидентов произвело большое впечатление. Дополнительно она узнала, что ее учительница болеет раком шеи и медленно умирает, потому что ее не выпускают из страны для лечения за границей.



Вернувшись в США, Лиза решила помочь своей учительнице и попытаться обратить внимание на ее судьбу. В декабре 2015 она объявила голодовку протеста и голодала 25 дней. Об этом написали в местной газете, затем сведения распространились дальше и закончились пресс-конференцией в Вашингтоне. В октябре 1986 обе палаты Конгресса приняли единогласную резолюцию:

"Expresses the sense of the Congress that the Soviet Union should abide by its international commitments under specified international human rights agreements and: (1) immediately approve the exit visa applications of Doctor Naum Meiman and his wife, Inna Kitrosskaya-Meiman; (2) resolve the outstanding divided spouses and separated family cases between the United States and the Soviet Union; and (3) guarantee to all Soviet citizens the right to emigrate to the country of their choice."
https://www.congress.gov/bill/99th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/404

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Бог в помощь



Небольшой эпизод из избирательной кампании 2016.

11 октября 2016 Викиликс вывалили очередную порцию емайлов из взломанной почты Джона Подесты. Среди них был емайл 2011 года, в котором Дженифер Палмиери (Director of Communicationsв в кампании Хиллари Клинтон) обменивалась мнением с Джоном Халпиным, другим демократом и католиком, в то время когда они вместе с Подестой работали в Center for American Progress.

Халпин обсуждал статью про Руперта Мердока, в которой рассказывалось, как Мердок выращивает детей в католической вере: "Ken Auletta's latest piece on Murdoch in the New Yorker starts off with the aside that both Murdoch and Robert Thompson, managing editor of the WSJ, are raising their kids Catholic. Friggin' Murdoch baptized his kids in Jordan where John the Baptist baptized Jesus." На что Палмиери заметила: "I imagine they think it is the most socially acceptable politically conservative religion. Their rich friends wouldn't understand if they became evangelicals."
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/4364

Первым этот емайл высветил по свежим следам канал RT https://www.rt.com/usa/362358-wikileaks-third-podesta-emails/

На трампинге во Флориде Трамп и его спичрайтеры воспользовались шпаргалкой. В своей речи в этот день Трамп упомянул Викиликс 13 раз. Австралиец Руперт Мердок, обладатель состояния в $20 миллиардов, превратился у него в "everyday Americans".

"The Hillary Clinton documents released today by WikiLeaks make more clear than ever just how much is at stake in this election, so much corruption. This election will determine whether we remain a free country in the truest sense of the word or we become a corrupt banana republic controlled by large donors and foreign governments. <...> Тhese WikiLeaks e-mails confirm what those of us here today have known all along. Hillary Clinton is the vessel, a corrupt global establishment that's raiding our country and surrendering the sovereignty of our nation. <...> WikiLeaks has given us a window into the secret corridors of government power where we see a former secretary of state announcing her desire to end forever the American independence that our Founders gave to us and wanted us to have. <...> Not only have the Clintons ripped off Haiti, but the new e-mails show members of the Clinton team attacking Catholics. While this is offensive, it's just the latest evidence of the hatred that the Clinton campaign has really for everyday Americans. And you see it and you see so much from these WikiLeaks. You see so much, there's so much."
https://factba.se/transcript/donald-trump-speech-panama-city-fl-october-11-2016



Карл Роув, руководитель избирательной кампании Буша, пришел на Fox News. Он говорил о важности голосов католических избирателей (четверти электората) и что кампании Трампа необходимо воспользоваться моментом, чтобы изобразить Клинтон врагом католиков и всех верующих вообще.

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Экскурс в историю



4 ноября 1956 года советские войска вторглись в Венгрию и за несколько дней потопили в крови венгерское восстание. За успешную операцию маршал Жуков получил четвертую звезду Героя Советского Союза, а председатель КГБ Серов был награждён орденом Кутузова I степени. Отличился и советский посол в Венгрии Юрий Андропов, который после этого пошел на повышение и стал заведующим Отдела ЦК КПСС по связям с компартиями соцстран.



Редакционная статья New York Times писала "We accuse the Soviet Government of murder. We accuse it of the foulest treachery and the basest deceit known to man. We accuse it of having committed so monstrous crime against the Hungarian people yesterday that its infamy can never be forgiven or forgotten."

В те же дни Дуайт Эйзенхауэр был переизбран на пост президента США, а окрыленный Никита Хрущев, выступая перед западными послами, озвучил свою знаменитую угрозу «Нравится вам или нет, но история на нашей стороне. Мы вас похороним.»

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Костер и дрова




Вчера в Нью-Йорке великолепные актеры читали со сцены отчет Мюллера. Получилось выразительно.



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